The Hollywood Scarlets
The podcast for film lovers by film lovers.
The Hollywood Scarlets is hosted by Aaron and Sam, two film fanatics who have grown tired of everyone always looking for reasons to hate movies and who just wanted a space where they can talk openly about their love for cinema without someone telling them that they're wrong!
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The Hollywood Scarlets
Our 2025 Oscar Winner Predictions!
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In today's episode, for the first time, Aaron sets out alone to tackle the big question: Who will win big at the 2025 Oscars? You'll hear him giving his opinions on the nominees, as well as his predictions on who will win each category.
On behalf of the podcast and the audience, we wish Sam the best and hope to see him back again soon!
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Yeah, I like that she started. And action. Welcome, everybody again to another episode of the Hollywood Scholars, episode 15, which is kind of crazy. We've been going for a long time now. Thank you for tuning in again. If you're unfamiliar of how this works, basically there are two hosts and one of us will lead the episode as the director of the episode. And in today's episode, I am your director. My name is Aaron and I am joined here by no one in a very different format to what we're used to. I am making my solo debut now. The reason for this is basically Sam has a personal thing. He is indisposed. He couldn't make any of the days for recording. But this is a very special episode. Okay. And I'm going to explain what we're going to be talking about in a second. So we didn't want you to miss out on this episode because it's a huge event in the film industry. And so I'm jumping in. I'm going to be here alone, you know, let's address the elephant in the room. It's going to be a different vibe. It's going to be a different vibe. Me being here alone compared to what it's like when there are two people here. And that's just unavoidable. So I'm going to still try and keep it as entertaining as possible. I'm still just going to be as, as as chaotic as I normally am. But we're not going to have Sam's calm, collected, put together demeanor here to balance me out, because that's exactly what he brings, isn't it? It's it's the organization that we love about Sam. It's the it's the preparation. That's what he brings to this podcast. And that's what we're going to be missing today. So excuse the chaos. I'm actually kind of nervous. I won't lie. I will tell you guys. I'll be honest. I'll be real. I'll be raw and vulnerable. I am nervous about recording this episode about Sam. It's like, like going on a trip by myself or something, you know, like you're used to going with your significant other and then that ill or something. So you've got to go to the social event by yourself and you don't really know anyone, or maybe you do, but even that, even then it's like, they're kind of different. Anyway, I'm gonna stop rambling. So. So today's episode is our Oscar predictions episode. If you don't keep up with the film industry, or maybe you've just lost sight of the fact that it's already near the end of February, which is kind of crazy. No, the Oscars is being held this weekend, the 3rd of March. And so what we wanted to do in our last episode before the Oscars, goes live, is we wanted to give our predictions. That was our plan for this episode, so it's quite an important one. Unfortunately, Sam didn't get round to making his predictions and sending them to me. So instead of us both putting our predictions forward in today's episode, you're just going to be hearing mine and you're just going to be hearing me give my thoughts and kind of jabber about why I'm thinking certain things and I'm going to be telling you in each category which film I think should win. Personally, based on what I've seen and which film I think will actually win based on what I know about the industry, what I know about films in general, you know, past events, the past, winners of these kind of things and all the snubs that we've come to, be very familiar with. Let's be honest. I mean, the, the Oscars is a time of snobbery and we love it for that. It creates the drama. I'm not even going to lie. I do love the drama of the Oscars. Before we get into my Oscar predictions, though, I did want to take a moment because this is our last episode of February. I want to take a moment to talk about the challenge that me and Sam set ourselves at the beginning of this year. If you didn't know what it was, we basically challenged ourselves to watch 156 new films this year. That works out to about three films every week at the moment. For the end of February, we should both be on. Let me do some quick math. We should both be on 24 new films. Now, you may realize that last week we we kind of went ham. We watched like five new films in the week, which was kind of crazy. And we definitely, took a more chilled approach to this week. I think. Sam logged three, I think I logged two, but for the month, Sam is on a grand total of 23. Now it is the 25th. There are three more days left of February, but he is behind and he's he's lucky he's not here because I would be giving him shit for that. Because moi, me carrying this challenge, I'm on 26 new films. I'm just saying. I'm just saying like, take what you will from it. Take what you will. I'm not going to be doing the weekly rushes this week. Because Sam's not here. And also because I do think that this episode has the potential to be quite long anyway, because we're talking about the Oscars. The Oscars is a huge thing in the film industry. It is like the, the the resistance of the entire awards season. Right. So there's a lot to talk about. There's a lot of thoughts that I have. You're going to sit here and you're going to listen to basically almost an hour of my opinions. You are welcome. It's it's not, diluted by Sam's opinions. Although, to be fair, I do think we share a lot of the same opinions for this Oscar season. So I think if we had his predictions here, he might agree with me. Now, what we're going to do next week after watching the Oscars is we're going to score ourselves. We're going to see how many we get, right. We're going to see, who wins, who gets the most points. And so next week, you'll hear what Sam predicted for the Oscars. So you still hear his predictions. Hopefully he'll be back next week. Please leave a comment on whatever podcast site you're listening to. Send some love. Sam's way. I know that a lot of our friends listen to this. If you know him, drop him a message, send him some love, and, and tell him how much you missed him in today's episode. Because you were sick of the sound of my voice. I won't take offense. It's fine. And you? Let's get started. Now, I'm going to leave some of the bigger ones to the end, because I know, like, everybody's interested in who thinks the Best Picture winner will be and the actor in a leading role. So I'm going to leave those kind of ones to the end because I know how audience retention works. All right. Just saying. And I'm going to start with some of the ones that kind of, you know, they sometimes fall by the wayside. Now, full disclaimer the ones I'm not going to be talking about here are the documentaries and the short films. And the reason for that is because, to be honest, I know squat about them. I haven't seen any of the short films, I haven't seen any of the documentaries. So I don't want to talk on things I don't know. I like none of these names even ring bells to me. I could just pick one at random, I guess, but it doesn't feel right, you know? So I'm just I'm excluding them from the list. So sorry. If you did want to hear those, please obviously go and show them some love. Go and watch these documentaries. Go pay attention to them. Don't do. I didn't just ignore them because, it sucks. And these are still talented people in the industry who deserve all the love. They've been nominated for an Oscar. That's fucking awesome. Congratulations to them. We love to see it. Anyway, let's get on with it. Let's start with visual effects. Now, the nominees for this category, we have alien, Romulus, Better man, Dune, part two, Kingdom of the planet of the apes, and wicked. This was quite an interesting category because it was the only one that featured alien Romulus, Batman, and Kingdom of the planet of the apes, so it was quite like a unique category in that it had a lot of single nominees, right? Obviously, Dune Part two and wicked, they got nominated across the board, for a bunch of different things, but it was really cool to see these other titles, these unique titles being thrown in the now, who do I think should win? Personally, I would love to say Alien Romulus. But here's the thing about the visual effects category. Visual effects I think refers to, VFX. So computer generated imagery, right? Which is why I think films like The Substance haven't been put into that category in A Different Man, which we'll talk about later. Alien Romulus I think the best thing about that film is its special effects. It's it's practical puppetry. Animals, animals want to talk about creatures. Right? So I don't think it shines in visual effects as much as that. And therefore I don't think it should win in that category. Unfortunately. Kingdom of the planet of the apes, I feel like we've seen what they've done so many times that at this point it's just kind of like, well, yeah, we expect it of them. So I don't think it's as much of a of a technical feat. It's still really cool and really awesome to watch, of course. But like we've seen so many of these planet of the apes films and they all kind of they improve on the ones before them, but they all kind of have the same source, right. So I don't think that one should win Dune part two again, I think is of a similar, vibe where, you know, the first Dune, it kind of established it. And then Dune Part two was just kind of in the same kind of recipe. So for me, it's between Better Man or Wicked, both of which I think do really cool things. Personally, my choice for who I want to win is better man. If you haven't seen that film, it is the Robbie Williams biopic, where he is a CGI monkey the entire time, and that alone, the fact that that doesn't take you out of the movie and you feel every emotion for this damn monkey is just a feat of engineering and just phenomenal storytelling and such a beautiful blend of visual effects with practical effects and real life filming. It was amazingly done. I love that film. It was a film I rated five stars. I absolutely adore it. Yeah, there's going to be a lot of personal bias in these nominations. Let's just say that now, okay? You're going to see it especially later when we start talking about the substance. So get used to it because it's going to happen. Do I think Batman will actually win it though? I don't I think if I'm giving what the Oscars are going to pick, I think wicked gets it. I think wicked is going to see a lot of wins. This, this Oscar season. Deservedly so. I'm not sure. And I'm wicked. I think it is a great film. I think it's had a huge cultural impact already. And, and I think it does deserve the the praise that is getting for me, though. I just think Batman just did it better. So my choice is Batman. My prediction is wicked. And that's how this is going to go. That's how these categories are going to go. So I'm more basing my score off of my predictions okay. So my score next week will be based off of if I get my predictions right. So my prediction is wicked. So that's visual effects. Let's move on to let's move on to sound. Now there are a couple of categories here. And sound is one of them where like I don't I don't really know how to judge them. I pay attention to it when I'm watching a film. It's things like sound and editing, but like, how do you judge those? How do you kind of say this one is better than that one? Unless they're obviously really bad? And this is, I think, where we're going to kind of miss Sam because Sam is so much more into like, the sound editing and, and the film scores and all that kind of stuff. So much more than I am. So that's a shame that he's not here again. We missed Sam. Hope you're doing well, buddy. But based on what I've watched and based on on the things that I know, you know, I'm actually going to change my vote. Okay? Okay, okay. Full disclosure, originally I had put a complete unknown down as my choice. I'm going to change that. I'm going to go with the wild robot for my choice. The wild robot is so damn good and the entire immersive experience that you get of that is just unparalleled. Of an experience that I've had recently, I should probably tell you what the nominees of this category are. That would be helpful. So we have a complete unknown. We have Dune part two, we have a media Perez, we have wicked, and we have the wild robot. The wild robot was genuinely just such, such, an experience. You know, like there were very few films which I'll, I'll come out of and I'll be like that felt like the idea of cinema the Wild Robot was one of those. Do I think the Wild Robot will win it? I don't, I think again, this one will go to wicked. I think obviously wicked is a musical. So I think by just that, that standard, wicked will win a lot of the sound based and music based awards. Its main competition in that area, I think, is Amelia Perez. It's obviously a better musical than Amelia Perez. Right? Like, let's let's just be factual. It is a better musical. The songs are, crafted, and put together in a more technically able way to put it bluntly, the, the they're just they're just crafted better. And the entire thing, the entire experience just from an objective, technical standpoint, wicked trumps Amelia Perez and the fact that Amelia Perez has won some more awards than wicked and Be Wicked in certain things is absolutely outrageous and I call bullshit. So that sound, I think wicked will get it. I would like the wild Robot to get it. Let's move on to production design. I fucking love production design. It's not like a thing of that typical film, bro, where they're like, oh, have you seen their mise en scene? The mise en scene of this scene really brought out the blue in the curtains and highlighted the progression of the main character. It's not any of that nonsense, right? I just think like the immersion of a film, it's so carried by production design and in a way that like, it doesn't get enough credit. So I love this category. I was really excited to see what was, what was nominated, and I was even more excited because the nominees were the Brutalist Conclave, Dune Part two, Nosferatu and Wicked. And I was so fucking excited to see Nosferatu get another because all my, what a film that is. If you have, listen to our first episode of 2025, you will know that me and some absolutely adored Nosferatu. It was. It's crazy that the best film of 2025 has come out on the 1st of January, but this is the world. We live in them right now. This is the reality we face. It is a gorgeous film and just an absolute feat of engineering from every standpoint of filmmaking. So I think it's pretty obvious what I'm going to pick for my production design. Went ahead. It's conclave now. I'm joking. It's nozpheratu. Of course, if Nozpheratu doesn't win, I will be really sad because the the way Robert Eggers crafts time, what they call period pieces, is, is unparalleled at the moment in cinema. He does it like no one else does. It, in my opinion. Do I think it actually wins? Will it take home the award? Nope. For the third time in a row, I'm giving it to wicked. I think a lot of people are going to be shocked I didn't pick the brutalist, and I think a lot of people are going to be shocked that I don't pick the brutalist more in my choices. I do pick it for a few things, but I think I've picked it less than other people might. If you've listened to the podcast, you will know I'm not the biggest fan of the brutalist. I'm just not. I think the fact that they used eye imagery in that film, to to showcase aspects that should have been production design, or at least visual effects, I think should should hurt this film's chances of winning this Oscar here. If it doesn't, we're going to have we're going to raise more questions about the use of AI in film, which I think is going to be a huge topic of conversation after this Oscars anyway. But yeah, I do think that should hurt his chances here personally. So that's production design three down. Let's keep it going because I'm almost half hour in and I need to pick up the pace. Let's move on to to film editing. Not actually excuse me. Let's do makeup and hairstyling because I feel like that works quite well with production design, makeup and hairstyling. The nominations are a different man. Amelia Perez, Nosferatu the Substance and the wicked. This one was actually a really hard category for me to choose from, because if you haven't seen in Different Man, the makeup that they do on Sebastian Stan is phenomenal, but nominal. It is is a fucking it's a work of art. I don't I mean, Amelia Perez I think has quite basic hairstyling, to be honest. I don't think, makeup. Sorry. I think it's like in comparison to the rest of these, it is easily bottom of the pile. And I'm not saying that because of, you know, the the interpretation of Amelia Perez as a film and my feelings about it. I'm saying that from an objective standpoint, like when you when you put imagery of what they did in that film in comparison to a different man in comparison to Nosferatu, the substance wicked, it just does not have any legs. It just doesn't. And so it shouldn't even be in consideration here for this, for this nomination. But here it is. Whatever. Nosferatu obviously is, is absolutely phenomenal. What they did with the character of Nosferatu, and Bill Skarsgard is. Yeah, it's amazing. And like, he completely is lost in what they did to him. And so it was a real battle because obviously we've got the substance and if you've seen the substance, you'll know exactly what I'm talking about here. If you haven't, sorry. Slight spoilers. There's a character called Elisa Soo. That's all I'm going to say. If you are interested in watching the film, watch it. If you are not, look up a picture of Elisa Su, Lisa Sui and you'll know exactly what I'm talking about and you'll know exactly why I have picked this film to be my personal choice. Because holy shit. And just the the the entire film and it's body horror and the way that they, the way that they use practical effects in that film is just it takes you back to the days of the 80s with, with like, b horror and, and, you know, things like the sync and things like Basket Case and Hellraiser and all those kind of things. It's just absolutely tremendous. Do I think it will win it? Nope. Here we go. For the fourth time in a row, I think wicked wins it. And I think honestly, I don't think it deserves it, I really don't. I think it's probably second from bottom in my personal ranking, but I think I forgot her name. The green lady. Shit. My bad. Sorry. Any wicked fans out there? The Green lady is probably going to be what swings this vote. Unfortunately, wicked is a cultural staple. I think it will just win off of its off of its reputation alone. I hope it doesn't. I hope I'm proven wrong here, but I really do think it takes it. I would love to see the substance Nosferatu or different man when it. I would actually be happy with any of those three. Obviously the substance is my choice, but I think the other three did some amazing things. I think they they pushed boundaries and genuinely should be awarded for their technical efforts. Personally. Let's move on to film editing. Now, for me, I don't know if anybody agrees with this. I find film editing to be such a difficult category to talk about because I don't really know how to, how to how to judge it, essentially. I don't know how to say, okay, this one's better than this one. That being said, I did recently watch The Monkey, and there is an absolutely phenomenal bit of comedic editing in that film. So like, yeah, I guess if you're using it for that effect, it is it is brilliant. But like, you don't really notice editing outside of obvious choices. And I feel like that's the point with editing, you're not meant to see editing a good edit is one where you don't even realize the film has been edited. You, not even you don't even think about it, right? So that makes it quite hard to, to to choose a winner, in my opinion. But the nominees, we have a Nora, we have the brutalist, we have conclave, we have Emilia Perez, and we have wicked. I, I kind of just picked out the barrel here. I kind of just shot in the barrel. I don't have a lot to talk about with this one. I'll be straight. I picked conclave, I thought the the I remember being very tense in that film, and I feel like some of that has to be done to the editing in the way that they, the way that they pace the film. So I'm choosing conclave based on a feeling I had in the cinema. It's not a strong pick, I won't lie, but I'm going to pick that. However, my prediction we're adding another one is wicked. It honestly is wicked. You'll notice that I have chosen wicked as basically the big winner of this Oscars. I think it's a film which perfectly marries technical achievement with pop culture, essentially. So it's like the audience, the general audience, the mass audience with, you know, something that that film lovers and people who actually enjoy film on a technical level. Okay, I'm going to rephrase that because that came out really horrible. People who pay attention to the technical levels of film, will also really appreciate. So I think wicked is going to be one that sweeps the awards season personally. I'll be surprised if it doesn't, but that's film editing. I should have really put costume design in here, along with makeup and hairstyling and production. So let's just do that one now. Can you tell this is why I'm saying Sam is the organization of the episode. Sam is the one who brings us on a beautiful, well planned pathway. I'm just the one who just kind of comes along and acts like an idiot. Anyway. Costume design nominees. A complete unknown Conclave Gladiator two, which I think is its only nomination of of the of the season Nozpheratu and wicked. This is like a lot of period pieces I think get nominated here. A complete unknown. You know, it takes you back to to the era of Bob Dean. And I think it's like the 60s or the 70s. So how well does it transport you? Conclave is all of the, the Pope outfits and the, the accuracy of those of that imagery essentially. Gladiator two again in of a period piece. Nosferatu a period piece and then wicked. I mean, wicked is just in its own genre. I guess it's like the theatrical imagery of it is, is probably the best way to put it. For similar reasons as production design. I've also nominated Nosferatu here. I've given the award to Nosferatu because, again, in the same way that the production design was just phenomenal, the costume design goes hand in hand with that, and I feel like if I'm giving it to to, Nosferatu for the production design, I kind of have to give it to Nosferatu for the costume design. My personal opinion anyway. And also the costumes are fucking amazing in that film. Like, the line, do I think it will actually win? Nope. I think again, wicked takes this, and this is one I do think wicked, you know, like, I think anybody would probably look at the nominees here and pick wicked, just because of the sheer again, this the theatrical imagery that this film has achieved and costumes are a huge part of that. And I think that that's going to be something which has to be in contention and has to be considered and will be considered. So I think, I think what this is wicked seventh win of the night, in my opinion. So there we are. Let's dip over to music. The original score, the nominees of this one, we have the brutalist, we have conclave, we have a Perez, we have wicked, and we have the Wild Robot. Original score. Again, this is where Sam would have Sean. Sam loves film scores. He loves them. He can genuinely just recognize a film from like a few notes of a score. It is. It is impressive. Me, on the other hand, it's not something I personally pay attention to. I let it kind of wash over me and, and impact me and, and influence my emotions in the way that I think the filmmakers want me to feel. But I don't spend a lot of time thinking about the composition of music for the first time in this category. By the way, I haven't picked wicked, so look forward to that. My personal choice, in the same way that, I chose this film for sound, I think The Wild Robot should win this. I think the Wild Robots score is absolutely gorgeous. I think it's it just illustrates the the emotions of the films so beautifully, you know, like moving into these triumphant moments and then kind of dropping in these emotional moments and, and just really moving with the emotions of the characters. I think it's it's just a very well crafted overall score. But I think the actual winner will be the brutalist. And this is only based on the fact that everybody has really praised it. I came out of it kind of feeling like I didn't really pay attention to the score. I think the most impressive piece of the score that you hear in the film is the one you hear in the trailer. And so like for me, it was it's like when a trailer shows you all of the best shots and you get into the film and you're like, okay, yeah, those shots are cool, but where's the rest of it? You know, it's like it kind of felt like that for me where there wasn't enough outside of that. That central piece for me to really for it to really stick with me. So I personally think the Wall robot, I think this is one of the few, awards that I've given to the brutalist, though, because I don't think highly of that film. Let's move on to what should we move on? Do you guys got any suggestions? Let me know. Let me know. We've done kind of all of the more background ones. As harsh as that sounds, I do apologize again. I'm not trying to detract from any anything that the filmmakers have done with these categories. But, you know, I do feel like in the Oscars, there are some that that people just pay more attention to, you know, the writing, awards the, the best picture. Obviously the acting awards. Let's move on to the writing categories. Now we have two writing awards that you can win at the Oscars. You have the adapted screenplay, and you have the original screenplay adapted is obviously if it's, a screenplay that has been, based on a piece of work, prior, a piece of work, or often a biopic. Will will get adapted and original is it's an original story. It's fairly self-explanatory. Let's start with the adapted. The nominees are a complete unknown conclave, a media Perez nickel boys and sing, sing. This one I didn't have any strong feelings about. I won't lie, I didn't really. None of these really jumped out at me as like, oh, that's an obvious winner, right? So I pick my choice on the film, which I think should win, should have been nominated for more, and I think should win the awards that it does get nominated for, which is sing, sing, if you don't know what sing Sing is, it's such a fascinating little story. I actually thought it was a documentary the first time that I saw the trailer. It's definitely one which I think, flew under the radar in a way that was a real shame. Do I think it would actually win it? Nope. I think this one will go to a complete unknown, just because the subject matter is the most well known. You know, biopics of legends like Bob Dylan, and like Elvis and stuff, they often do really well at the Oscars, just purely because the people who are voting are fans of whoever these things are based on. That's just the fact. Unfortunately, that's that's like a personal bias creeping in where you don't actually look at the, the, the technical achievement that's on offer, and instead you look at just the fact there's, oh, it's Bob Dylan. Cool. Because honestly, I'm speaking honestly here. If we were looking at the technical achievement, Batman destroys a complete unknown every single day of the week. So yeah, I think I think a complete unknown wins that, I actually don't think a complete unknown is going to win as many awards as maybe people would have expected. I think this is actually quite a tough award season. And I think this will be one where it does shine and gets a bit of a nod. Moving on to the original screenplay, we have a Nora, the brutalist, a Real Pain, September 5th, and the substance, the brutalist. I think a lot of people were quite surprised that because I've seen a lot of people try and research the main character, because they thought he was real, it does play out almost like a biopic. And the way it's in, the way it's directed and the way it's written and all of that, it's quite cleverly done in that way, I guess. So I think a lot of people were surprised to see that an original screenplay, my choice on here, if you know anything about me, is going to be obvious. It's the substance. All right. Listen, listen, there is reasoning and I am right. Okay. All right. Listen, I think the substance and what it what it says about the society we live in, the expectations that are put on, first of all, women in general. And then all the women, especially women who are in the entertainment industry and how their value is perceived and, and just dropped when they hit a certain age. All of that. Right. And that's only scratching the surface of what this film talks about is so beautifully done in this film. It's so beautifully written and communicated that I cannot see personally how this doesn't win. All right, September 5th I personally do not think should be on this list because it is based on a real life event. And so therefore, I think if you're if you're adapting something like a complete unknown or conclave and putting that in adapted screenplay, why doesn't September 5th go in there off of the footage in that film? Is archival footage. So half of the script is pre-written recordings. That should not be an original screenplay, in my opinion. So I'm not even taking that into consideration. I won't lie, it's probably harsh, but I just I don't think it should be considered here. This is one of the few times where I think the brutalist will take it. I do think that unfortunately, the brutalist takes original screenplay, and I say unfortunately, because I think that the substance a real pain and Nora deserve it more. Obviously, the substance is is a personal favorite film of mine. It's in my letterbox top four. I've tried not to let my bias get in the way of that and kind of kind of try and come at it from a more objective standpoint, but even so, I did want to mention it. So that's the writing category. Let's take a moment to look at the international feature film and the animated feature film before we dip in to the big winners of the night. All right, let's start with the international feature film. Some cracking films in here, and then Amelia Perez. Oh, dear. So the nominees we have, I'm still here. The girl with the needle, a media Perez, the seed of the sacred Fig and flow. Now, this is an interesting category because two of those international films, I think for the first time in Oscar history, have also been nominated for Best Picture. And that's I'm still here in the media. Perez. So this is a really interesting category. And also we have an animated feature film nominated for international feature film, which is flow. I personally would give it to flow. Flow is it was made by I think like one person. It has no dialog. It is a beautiful story about, companionship, about community, about a world without humans. It's a film that communicates every emotion without needing to say a single word. You get and understand every single character without them needing to tell you who they are, verbally and honestly. I think it what it achieves is spectacular. And the fact that, again, that all of that was was done by like one person, I mean, I think from a technical standpoint that we should be commending this person as much as we physically can. And so for me, I think international feature film, it should be flow. I think it trumps. I don't think it will get it. I think personally the seed of the sacred fig wins it and I reason I say this I haven't actually seen this film, but from what I've seen from the trailers, it looks like a in an Oscar film. Does that make sense? It looks like a film that the Oscars will look at and go, oh, okay, I like it, I love it. The Academy, I should say, not the Oscars. So I think it just is a perfect, perfectly crafted film to fit into the the check boxes that they probably are looking for at the Academy. I think it wins just based on that. That's not to take away again from the equality. Everything I'm saying is obviously my opinion is I'm not meaning to take away from the quality of any of the achievements that any of these filmmakers have made. I'm just trying to be as brutally honest as I can be. But there there's a disclaimer. All right, as a disclaimer. Moving on to the animated feature film, we once again see flow nominated here. We also see Inside Out, Memoir of a snail, Wallace and Gromit, Vengeance, Most Fowl and the Wild Robot. This is easily the tightest category of the Oscars this year. Every single film in this lineup is marked top tier. I don't think a single person looked at this list and went, nah, nah, that's wrong. I think everybody looked at this list and went, yeah, that's that's a good fucking category. That is a bangin category. It's therefore quite interesting that not this is the only category. Oh no, I tell it's not. I'm just lying to you just point blank. It is one of two categories where my prediction and my choice are the same. I think the wild robot will take this. Now, the reason I've chosen this as a personal thing and not Flo because I just chose Flo for international is just because I think from like a visual point of view, the wild robot is just better than Flo. I mean, obviously we need to take into account into account that The Wild Robot was a Dreamworks feature film. It was, Chris Sanders, who's already done How to Train Your Dragon and, Lilo and Stitch. He already has a phenomenal track record, and they will have had a ridiculous budget behind them, whereas Flo was one person. And I think it might have even been his, debut in feature film. But, you know, I don't think that kind of thing is taken into account, fortunately. And, you know, like, visually and and just technically speaking, The Wild Robot is a better film. And so I picked that, for, for my choice. And also it's just a great. So and I think it will be the one that is picked by the Oscars because I think it's one that out of all of them, pushes the, the genre, and the, the, the idea of what you can do in an animated film, I think it pushes it forward. I think flow does the same. But yeah, I think the wild Robot is just, is just is just a little bit ahead in that regard. That being said, I genuinely think that any one of these films deserves it. I don't often say that. And like, and you know, any time you see them on the Oscar stage and they say any one of the nominees here should be the winner, but unfortunately, only one can take it home full of shit. All right. Full of shit. Because everybody knows in the categories there is always at least one, if not more, films that just don't deserve to be there. I've pointed out a few of them in this episode, but in this, in this category, every single one of these films is top tier. It is a top, top tier film for animation. And honestly, 2024 was a fucking cracking year for animation. I've got high hopes for 2025. I hope we see more. Really cool stuff. The wild robot though. I think we'll take the last one before directing and the acting awards is cinematography. Now, the reason I've kind of put this in with the big hitters is because I personally am a huge fan of cinematography. I think, you know, alongside directing, I think it's one of the most important things in the film. I actually kind of personally value it sometimes more than acting. I won't lie. And so I've kind of I've kind of factored it into here. Okay. So the nominees here we have the brutalist, we have Dune part two. We have the media Perez. We have Maria, which is the only time we see that on the film. I think that is the biopic starring Angelina Jolie. And we have Nozpheratu now. There has been a film this year where if you pause the film at any single point, it is something you could frame and put on your wall. It's just like it's it's just like it's words. I can't say on a podcast without getting myself taken away. Take from that way you will use your imagination. I don't know, it is just like is it's it's just phenomenal. And that film, of course, is Nozpheratu. There is not a film that I have seen in recent years that looks better than that film. The cinematography is next tier, next level. I have a friend. He's a big film fan. He's probably watched more films than me and some. And he came out of this, of the, of the theater after watching this and he literally said, in my life, if I was to pick my top five shots of all time, my top five single shots, still shots of all time from films, four of them would be from this film. And I think, yeah, it absolutely would be. It is a film which is just beautiful. And so obviously, to the surprise of no one here, that is my choice for the when do I think he will actually win? No. And here's why. Because the Oscars hates horror. And I think the sheer fact that Nosferatu is a horror movie will stop it from winning this Oscar. And I think that's bullshit. But there it is. I think the winner, will be the brutalist. I think a lot of people have been describing it as an epic. And I think when you start to see that word, you start to expect certain things from the industry in terms of the awards and in terms of the, the, the response that it has. And I think the brutalist therefore will fit into that for cinematography. Do I think it deserves it? Absolutely not, absolutely not. I would put it third or fourth on this list if I'm being brutally honest. It is a good looking film. It looks great, but it's just not as good as the rest of them. I think it was unfortunate. So now the only ones that we have left are the best picture, the directing and all of the acting. So let's start out with, the acting nominations and awards. These are the big ones. These are the ones that everyone remembers, along with the best picture and the directing. They're like the big five, I think is actor in a leading role, actress in a leading role, Best Picture directing. And I think it's either writing or cinematography. It's like if you get nominated in all of those, your film is like, wow, and if you if you win all of those, you're like, fucking top to, unparalleled basically. Right. So let's start with actor in a supporting role. We have you're, Borisov from Nora. We have Kieran Culkin from a real pain, Edward Norton from a complete unknown Guy Pearce from the Brutalist, and Jeremy Strong from The Apprentice. A pretty good year. To be fair, pretty good lineup of acting chops. And this is the second category where my choice has married up with what I actually think will win. And I honestly would be surprised if he doesn't win just because of the sheer campaign and award season that he's had. And that's Kieran Culkin. Now. I have seen a real pain. I've seen what he does in that film and yeah, he is phenomenal. He carries that film. Not that Jesse Eisenberg is bad, but Kieran just shines, right? He's just on another level. It could be argued that he's playing himself and that's why he's on another level, but he's still on another level. And that's just the fact of it, right? I think he will win it. And if I was choosing, he should win it. I would be very surprised. Based on the award season we've seen for him so far, if he doesn't get this win. Actress in a supporting role, we have Monica. I don't know why I made that noise, I do apologize, I'm getting excited by the end of this day. We have Monica Barbera for a complete unknown, Ariana Grande for wicked, Felicity Jones for the brutalist, Isabella Rossellini for conclave, and Zoe Saldana for Emilia Perez. Now, it is well known fact that Zoe Saldana has been carrying a media Perez. Isabella Rossellini I she was in conclave for like two seasons. So it is actually really impressive that she got nominated for a supporting role here because she has like one scene where she actually gets to act, I think, and I guess she was just that good a Felicity Jones. Interestingly, she doesn't come in until halfway through that movie. I honestly think she's one of the weaker performances on this list. Personally speaking. Ariana Grande, I think has shocked a lot of people with what she's produced in this, in this award. See, in this film. Sorry, and then Monica Barbera, I'm not going to lie, I feel like she has been so overlooked during this entire press tour and conversation about a complete unknown. Her performance of Joan Baez was amazing. Like, I did not care when Bob Dylan was on the screen. I cared when Joan Baez was on the screen, right? Like I wanted to see more of her. I kind of wish that the film was actually about her. And then Bob Dylan was a side character because she was she was funnier to watch. She was more entertaining to watch. From like a musical standpoint. She she just was a better character, in my opinion. I mean, Bob Dylan's kind of an asshole is very much said in the film, and I think maybe that contributes to it. But if I'm choosing the Oscar, Monica Barbera gets it. I think she was incredible. And I mean, Timothy Shannon did this as well. But the fact that she sung all of her own songs and and did all of the vocals for that role is absolutely phenomenal is a huge, huge achievement. Do I think she'll get it? Nope. I think the award here will go to Felicity Jones. So let's move on to the bigger awards, the leading roles. Not that the bigger awards, but everybody sees them as not for some bastard reason. Let's start with the actor in a leading role. So we have Adrien Brody from the brutalist. We have Timothee Chalamet from a complete unknown. We have Colman Domingo from Sing Sing. We have Ralph Finn's from conclave, and we have Sebastian Stan from The Apprentice. A pretty stacked lineup, a pretty stacked lineup. All of these definitely gave performances that have earned them these Oscars. They were all, very, very good, very, very well. You know, very well chosen, I think here my choice for this, category here goes to Sebastian Stan. Now, if you don't know what the apprentices are, it is a biopic about Donald Trump, which immediately you may be like, why the fuck you choose? Not them, Aaron. And I'll tell you, I think it's because the film takes a huge and very risky and very brave swing at trying to understand who this person is. Right? And I think Sebastian Stan has such an insight into what it means to be an actor, what it means to be an artist in the world that we're currently living in. An insight that he brings into this role, you know, in that he says that we should try and look at everybody as a human. We should try and understand them. Otherwise we will never, progress essentially, you know, and I agree with him, like, if we can't see where the other person on the other side of the conversation is coming from, if we can't empathize with that position, no matter how bad or fucked up they are, if we can't understand them, we will never be able to move forward. We'll just constantly be fighting and constantly be at each other's throats. And so I think what Sebastian Stan did with this film, the performance alone is a phenomenal performance. But also, I think the potential impact and what the film means and, and, and will mean, I think it will be a film that we look back on, in future and, and probably have more of a positive outlook on than what we currently do, because I think the the nerve is just a little bit raw at the moment for that kind of film. But I think what he's done with the role and what he wanted to do with it, I think should be commended, which is why I've picked him for this. I don't think he'll get it. I my prediction is Timothee Chalamet now. Timothee Salomé did a phenomenal thing with his Bob Dylan performance. He embodied the character. He sang all of his own songs. He really committed to it. He gave an incredible performance. I'm not taking anything away from that. However do I think that this should be his Oscar winner? No. I think what we're going to see here is another Leonardo DiCaprio in The Revenant situation where Timothee Chalamet should have won an Oscar. So, so far back in the past, right? He should have won it ages ago, but he didn't. He hasn't. And so I think we've gotten to the point now where everybody knows he should have an Oscar right now. And so the Academy is going to go okay here it is. And so they don't have to kind of think about that anymore. Now this is unfortunate because this should never be the reason that somebody wins an Oscar. But I do think it will be and I think this is what we're going to see from this, this awards are, ceremony for this category. Moving on to actress in a Leading Role, we have Cynthia Erivo in Wicked. We have Carla, Sophia Gascon and Amelia Perez. We have Mickey, Mickey, Mickey, Mickey, Madison, Mickey Madison. I don't know how to say the first name. I do apologize, Mick. Mick, Mick. Mickey Madison. From Nora, we have Demi Moore in the substance, and we have Fernanda Torres, and I'm still here. Anyone take a guess what? I think she should win this. And I want to take a wild guess who I think should win this award. Obviously, it's fucking Demi Moore. Listen, the substance, I'm gonna say it. The substance is my top. One of my top four letterbox films of all time. I love the film. It is amazing. I have a personal bias in this, I know, but Demi Moore gives a fucking phenomenal performance in that film. Oh my God, we haven't seen anything like it in recent times. It's like when hereditary, we had Toni Collette in Hereditary who gave that phenomenal performance. You know, everybody knows the scene that the dinner table and how just perfectly she performed it. Did she even get nominated? No. And you know why? Because the Oscars hates horror. It snubs it every single year. It doesn't even bring it into the conversation because it sees it as a lesser artform. Everybody knows this about the Academy. We talk about it every year. Every single year. I see an article where it says 2023 is the year that the Academy needs to start respecting horror. 2024 is the year the Academy needs stop. And it's the same points that people I get. So I write about this right? But essentially the point is yes, more horror got nominated this season then I'm sure a lot of people expected. We saw the substance nominated for some of the biggest awards of the night. True to true, but I think that's as far as it will go. I don't think we go any further than that, unfortunately, which is a shame because, I genuinely think we saw something which was which was really special. And, yeah. I mean, I've said that I've said a lot about this film. I know I have, and I'm sure people are tired of hearing me talk about it, but I actually think the award will go to Mickey slash Mickey Madison. I personally just think that Demi Moore, Demi Moore, sorry offers something different. Still as amazing, but different and fresh and original. I'll shut up now. Anyway, let's move on to the next one. So we've got three. No we don't. We have two categories left. We have Best Picture and we have directing. Let's save Best Picture for last. Directing. We have a Nora, the brutalist, a complete unknown Amelia Perez. And the substance. Now, if I'm being brutally honest here, I do not think a complete unknown or Amelia Perez should even be considered in the conversation here. In fact, I'm gonna go a step further. I don't think the brutalist should be considered here. The reason I say this, I think it's separate reasons. But Amelia Perez, I think technically speaking, just doesn't achieve what the others do. And I think a complete unknown in the brutalist, their films that we've seen before, they kind of follow a formula. Right. And I think that that fact alone should kind of take them out of the consideration, and not put them in the conversation for the winning, of this category. And you'll see that in the choices that I've made on who I would want to win and who I have, predicted to win is because I just don't think they break the genre enough. They don't do anything different or interesting enough with with the with the film they're playing in to, to really be considered as, as something, in the Oscars category that we're talking about. You could argue that Emilia Perez is different in that regard. But again, I think the technical ability that is showcased here knocks it all the way down. So the two films that I am picking from here are a Nora and The Substance, and you can probably guess once again which one I've picked for directing less. And it is a phenomenal film. I must say it again, the substance is obviously my pick directing wise. The again, it goes hand in hand with the writing factor of it, you know, just just what is achieved. The message that is communicated, the the visuals, the the acting, all of it, everything that you can attribute to directing is beautifully crafted in this film. And I really do think we're seeing one of the most exciting voices in, in film starting to emerge. This is only her second feature film. That's crazy. What she's achieved here is insane for a second feature film. Right. And so I think we're really seeing somebody who is not only could be considered at the top of their game, but is also just still rising. We're just seeing her still just rising and going higher and higher. Right. It would help if I said her name, wouldn't it? Really? I'm just talking, it's, I hope I'm pronouncing. I hope I'm pronouncing this correctly. Is coralee fog fudge fudge quality fudge. I think she's French. Yeah. Just, Beautiful. Amazing. And I just I wouldn't pick anybody else. However, my prediction, I think, is actually a Nora. I think what Sean Baker did with that film is, again, it fits into the mold of what the Academy wants it. It's got that independent spirit, but it still is a very well crafted technical film. It has a lot to say. True. And I think from a directorial standpoint, is is a very good film and also is something which the Academy will really just eat up. Listen, if I'm being brutally honest, I actually don't think Nora's going to win. If I'm being brutally honest, I think the brutalist gets it. I don't think the brutalist should get it, but I think it will. But I'm going to put my prediction in for Nora. I'm going to hope and I'm going to put that as my as my score point. Right. The final category, the one everyone waits for, the one I'm sure you've all been waiting to hear my opinion on. We are over an hour into this podcast and it is a solo. Can you imagine if me on time were given our predictions here would be like a fucking three hour long episode. Good lord, I do want to try and talk about the Best Picture category films that we have. I want to kind of try and give my opinion, but what I'm going to do is, is just talk about the two films that I've selected and why I think that they should be and probably will be picked for this category. Okay, but the nominees for Best Picture, in case you're unaware, we have a Nora. We have the brutalist a complete unknown conclave. Dune part two. Amelia Perez I'm still here. Nicole. Boys, the substance and wicked. And every single one of those films has been nominated elsewhere, which, of course, is something you see in the Best Picture category anyway. It's pretty standard, right? My pick is, I'm sure, obvious I have picked the substance. Do I need to explain why? Probably not, so I won't. I think I've said enough about the substance in this episode, and all of the different components of that film for you to now fully understand why I think that this film should win Best Picture. I think in terms of one one more thing, I'm gonna say one more thing. I promise everyone, in terms of what the substance offers to cinema, I think it does more, it is achieved more and it wants to to to do more than any of the other films. And when I say that, I mean it wants to do more for the good of cinema. In my opinion, horror has always been a vehicle which filmmakers will use. And not just filmmakers, but, you know, authors and, and, and artists they will use to talk about subjects which are often considered taboo in the general, society that we live in. The substance is no different. It talks about how we treat women. It talks about, the, the value that we have for women at certain ages and women based on their bodies. And it talks about how women progress through life and how they have to be and behave and integrate themselves based on who they are, what age they are, what they look like. Right. And obviously, you know, feminism and women's rights, these are huge topics of conversations at the moment. But in the entertainment industry, I think we're still only scratching the surface, really, of what we should be talking about. And I think the substance is one which just embrace. It's like a sledgehammer that breaks through the ice to get to the topic. And I think we need films like that to start the conversations, not ones that are like scalpels. But I kind of like, you know, you got to look deeper and deeper and deeper to get to the message. Those are important. But I think sometimes we just need a sledgehammer, like the substance. And I think everything that it sets out to do and say it achieves. And it's also a very entertaining and well-made film. That's my campaign for the substance. Thank you very much. I'll take the Oscar now for my for my performance, but who is my prediction? Because it's obviously not going to be the substance. I'm not that stupid. I'm not that naive. I think the brutalist will win Best Picture, I do. I don't want it to, I think that there are films here which are more important films, more important in the history of cinema? More important in the conversation of cinema. I think films like The Brutalist are ones that, you know, like film Bruce will talk about, but I don't think anybody else will really talk about a year from now. Maybe it will have an impact on cinema in that we will see longer films now with intermissions. This is the first film that I know of, which features a genuine, honest to God intermission as a 15 minute interval intermission built into the film. So maybe that will impact the the runtime of films that we see going forward. But I do think that The Irishman, you know, films like The Irishman should take credit for that. I don't actually think The Brutalist is the first film to do this, and this is kind of what I'm talking about, where it doesn't offer anything new, it doesn't offer anything that you go, oh, wow. Yeah. Wow. I've not seen that before. You know, it does everything that we've seen before. It does it well, sure. But it doesn't do anything new. And that's why for me, it's not a Best Picture winner personally. But I think because it does the things that we've seen before and because it does them well, it is obviously, a well-crafted film made by somebody who knows cinema and knows how to craft a cinematic film. I think the Oscars, the Academy, they will eat that up. And they'll commend them. I think that's a shame. I mentioned in my letterbox review that The Brutalist is a film that makes me not as excited for the future of cinema. The substance is a film that makes me excited for the future of cinema, and I think the reason why I say that is because the substance and other films on that list, they offer something new. They offer, a glimpse into a future where we're seeing different films, and, and, and different genre films than what we've seen before. Whereas the brutalist, I think is a lot of the same that we've already seen. I think if you put the brutalist and the pianist side by side, would you be able to tell much of a difference? Probably not. Anyway, enough trash talking the brutalist. I do think it will win the best picture though. And if that's a compliment in and of itself, brilliant. Take the compliment. Let's go. Now. What do you guys think? Do you guys agree with my picks? I sound like Watchmojo here, but I'm. I'm rolling with it. See if you can get a higher score than me when the Oscars rolls around. The Oscars, of course, is being held the UK time.
Sunday at like, I think like 10:12 p.m.. I think it's 3 p.m. 3rd of March for everybody else. So whatever that time is, is is is what time you should be watching this? Actually, I don't know, time periods. I'm sorry. Definitely go and watch it. If you if you can't watch it, then just kind of keep an eye on, what films are being announced as the winners? This is, like I said earlier, it's the the resistance of film awards. I do want to say, though, just because the film is nominated for an Oscar does not make it a film that you need to watch. It does not make it the best film of the year. It is just an award. It's a it's a coveted award and it's a big award. True. And I'm not saying we should take any of the value away, but I do think sometimes we put too much value on the choices that the Academy makes. And we we lose sight of other films which are phenomenal experiences. Just because they didn't get nominated for an Oscar. And we say, oh, it's an Oscar winning film, and that means it's the best film that you ever should watch, and you need to watch it. And that's just not true. It's just not. So. Yes, enjoy the Oscars, have fun with it. But also remember, these are the opinions of a select group of people. And and then and if you don't agree with them, that's fine. And if your favorite film doesn't win, that's fine. And if your favorite film didn't even get nominated, that's fine. It does not detract from the value of your likes, your interest, and the films that you love. That's my peace. That's my that's my $0.02 on the matter. Thank you very much. Hopefully next week we will have Sam back. Hopefully we will be kind of back to our regularly scheduled programing next week. I hope this wasn't too painful for you to just hear my voice. I hope you did enjoy it. I hope you've, had a good hour spent with me. Thank you for spending the hour with me. I do really appreciate it. Like I said, go show some some love. Drop a comment on Spotify and Apple Music. Let him know you're thinking about him. Wish him well and say you can't wait to see him back, because I for one. Sam, if you're listening, I know you don't listen to our podcast. I'm calling you album. Also saying I can't wait to have you back. Man. I've missed you today. I should run through the outro. Let's do it. So follow us on Letterboxd. I am Aaron Duke. He is some map. Follow us on TikTok. We are the Hollywood Scarlett. Follow us on blue Sky. We are the Hollywood Scarlett. Remember to rate us. It really helps. And follow us on your favorite, podcast platform. If you have anybody that you know who you think would enjoy listening to this podcast, please recommend us. The more people who listen to us, the better we feel. Okay, I'm not going to lie, it's a dopamine fix to see the number of listeners per episode go up. I'm not at our front, I wouldn't lie. I'll keep it real. We're chasing that dopamine. We're chasing these likes so please feed us. Please. This is all we have for now. We're here to talk about film. We are a film podcast for film lovers by film lovers. I wish I didn't say at the beginning, but that's exactly what we are. So make sure you tune in next week. We will be talking about the Oscars. We will be looking at our predictions, and we will be rating our predictions and giving ourselves scores. And I'm sure there is going to be a lot to talk about. Until then, have a great week. Go watch some films. Go watch whatever film you want to watch, maybe watch some of the ones that have been nominated here, the ones that we've talked about today. I'd recommend this substance. Of course I would. Well, you know what a lower, like one that's not been seen as much, which I think more people should see is better. Man, I think if you haven't watched better, man, go watch better, man. It is great, is phenomenal. Thank you so much for listening. And, we'll see you next week. But.
